Considerable fears remain in many quarters that fairness and equality will elude the government and Ofqual. The current system appears to be trying to chase ‘ghosts’ that cannot be caught or assessed using current methods. A new way to assess students will be needed that gathers the attributes of students in the context of their situation. Of course, ensuring equal access to education on a level playing field would be a better way to give all of them same chance.  There is little doubt that the Centre Assessment Grade (CAG) methodology used by Ofqual this summer was crudely designed to ensure as little grade inflation as possible. By achieving this goal, it is only logical to assume that any existing inequalities would remain in place as standards remained the same across the board. Schools and colleges with a good past record would be guaranteed to continue to maintain this position in 2020. Others with a lesser record would stay at the back as before.  Sure enough, with ‘Stu...

The title refers to the false notion that it is possible to fairly and reliably assess the ability of students to decide on who gets a university place. The COVID crisis has revealed serious shortcomings in how we might assess the ability and potential of students in an unequal education system that favours attainment achieved by those with better resources. Measuring the 'ghost in the machine’ that is someone’s real ability taken in context is not considered and this disadvantages those with fewer learning resources or support at home.  Here are a series of posts relating to the final school and college examinations in the UK that determine transition to higher education. Whilst the governments in Scotland and Wales have cancelled their summer higher, advanced higher and A-level examinations, the governments in England and Northern Ireland will press on with examinations delayed by a few weeks next summer. The Northern Ireland government may have little choice since many students ...

It seems Ofqual has decided to fight back against the serious criticisms levelled at its handling of the summer examinations. What is surprising is how it is fighting back with philosophical arguments on the one hand and reiteration of their analysis of past data on the other.  The Secretary of State for Education, Gavin Williamson, announced in a statement last week that examinations in England will go ahead, despite Wales and Scotland retreating from such a move. His insistence that “exams are the fairest way to judge a student’s performance” , will be seen by some as very risky move in terms of ensuring fairness. This is despite assurances that marking will be more generous alongside forewarning of some topics to be examined. This follows a flurry of recent papers from Ofqual that illustrate the problems of the whole system ranging from the philosophical basis through to the practicalities of assessment.  Arrangements for 2021. Ofqual also released last week a fuller ex...

To illustrate the inherent uncertainty in unreliable and inaccurate assessments of the ability and attainment of students, I make an analogy with predicting the accuracy of William Tell hitting the apple. He could see where the apple was placed and could hit it with precise accuracy. Tell was also reliable and his record meant that he was expected to hit the apple every time he tried.  However, a less able fairground marksman might have boasted that he could ‘hit’ the apple, with + or – one apple width accuracy, at over 90% reliability. This means he is likely to be less accurate and much less reliable. One apple width too high is a miss that might as well have missed by a mile. One apple width too low and a new volunteer is needed. Taking bets on this would hardly attract the bookies since they would be more interested in the chances of an actual hit most of the time. The 90% reliability boast might hide inaccuracy too often and the reliability of hitting the actual target could ...

It seems to be generally accepted that there are major differences between schools and colleges in the success of their students in examinations. One cause could be some schools and colleges have students with better support and advantages at home. This makes such differentials inevitable. Bearing in mind better off families are willing to shell out considerable sums of money to use independent schools, it is likely that teaching and resources combine to lead to success. All things being equal otherwise, it looks like the school and teaching itself is under the microscope when examinations come along.  Hence the obsession with 'league tables'. Thus, the teacher’s ability is being assessed. The actual ability of the students seems relegated to a ghost-like’ presence hovering in the wings.  To accompany the conclusion of no increased equality bias with examinations, Ofqual added a report on its underlying mission on standards (Monday 23rd November 2020 ‘Maintaining Standards’ )...

There is always a danger that adherence to any particular philosophy is to such an extent that it overcomes ‘pragmatism’ and entrenches the approach in dogma. Yet it seems Ofqual may have fallen into this trap based upon ‘behaviourist’ thinking that emerged during the 20th Century. It crops up in the Ofqual papers as an unexpected idea. The pragmatic approach might have been overshadowed by a deeper philosophical dogma that may not have been recognised as such. It is based on the belief that there is a singular and ‘definitive’ truth that defines the ability and the potential of an individual student. The belief is that this manifests itself in better attainment that can be readily measured in a singular test at one point in time. Other constraints on the student or other attributes are discounted along with the idea of development over time. Accuracy and skill. It turns out the idea of ‘marksmanship’ had already crossed the mind of Paul Newton (see Note* below) in another explanatory...

UPDATE 23rd December 2020 The SLC has responded to TEFS regarding the numbers of students who have suspended their studies in academic year 2020/21. It seems they hold data on the numbers of students who suspend their funding. This would include many who have suspended their studies for a variety of reasons. But the SLC do not want to release this data. The full impact of the COVID crisis on students across the UK  is therefore not known. However, universities will have this information locally. TEFS is therefore proceeding with a Freedom of Information request. The full response is here. "SLC does not hold data on students suspending their studies. SLC systems do record funding suspensions; however, funding suspensions may be applied to the customer’s account for a number of reasons, not just study suspensions. The specific reasons for funding suspensions are not recorded, therefore it is not possible to provide aggregate data on study suspensions. To be clear...

All government’s stand or fall on  their ability to plan effectively and turn those plans into reality. The COVID-19 crisis is almost a year into its effects and planning has effectively stalled. It seems the government has yielded to a form of virus-led anarchy that relies on private enterprise and people acting with common sense. The government reacted too late to the pandemic and has been playing catch up ever since. This week was no different with another interim spending review announced on Wednesday. Unexpected was the omission of universities and Augar along with support for students, grants, and fees. Reports that university finances are being reviewed behind closed doors by a former independent-schooled, unelected Lord with no university degree is concerning. Meanwhile, a crew of four, led by an unelected former minister are looking at the tricky problem of what to do, or not do, to universities that fall into financial difficulty. Called the ‘ Higher education restruct...